Global supply chains remain exposed as Ukraine concerns rise and Middle East disruption persists

Procurement leaders register high levels of concern and widening cyber risk as fragile global supply webs come under sustained pressure from Iran, the wider Middle East and the war in Ukraine.

Global supply chains remain under intense strain, with the slight easing in short-term anxiety from record highs pointing not to a return to stability, but to a new normal of elevated risk, according to the latest CIPS Pulse Survey for Q2 2026.

The survey reveals that procurement and supply chain professionals continue to face an unusually elevated risk environment, with conflict in the Middle East, the broader geopolitical climate and the war in Ukraine dominating concerns. The findings come as global attention turns to the NATO Summit in Ankara, Türkiye, on 7–8 July, where defence, industrial resilience and security of supply are expected to be high on the agenda.

“The tectonic plates of global trade are shifting. The world we knew has gone. Regionalisation is rising, globalisation is being reshaped, and those organisations that build resilient regional partnerships will be best placed to thrive," says CIPS global CEO Ben Farrell MBE. 

“Procurement and supply professionals are turning geopolitical exposure into practical options. They are moving beyond traditional just-in-time models towards more resilient supply webs that can maintain continuity when routes are blocked, inputs are restricted or sudden shocks occur.”

“With conflict in the Middle East, continued instability linked to Iran and the ongoing war in Ukraine, the NATO Summit in Ankara is putting security of supply firmly in the spotlight. Procurement is a strategic function at the heart of national and organisational resilience.”

Short-term concern about potential supply chain shortages and disruption fell to 4.95 on a 1–7 scale, down from the Q1 2026 peak of 5.69. However, the figure remains higher than any other Pulse reading over the past two and a half years, underlining that easing anxiety does not mean a return to stability.

“The easing in short-term anxiety should not be misread as a return to normality," says CIPS chief economist Dr John Glen. "The direction of travel may have softened, but the level of concern remains elevated."

Graph tracking short-term anxiety recorded in the CIPS Pulse survey Q1 2024-Q2 2026

Longer-term concern also remains high. Looking ahead over the next 12 months, anxiety sits at 5.0, down from 5.64 in Q1, but still the third-highest long-term reading recorded by the CIPS Pulse Survey and only the third time the average has reached 5 or above.

Middle East conflict remains the dominant driver of disruption

Procurement and supply chain professionals identify geopolitical disruption as the primary cause of concern:

• 75% cite conflict in the Middle East
• 67% point to the general geopolitical environment
• 33% cite the war in Ukraine

While the proportion citing Middle East conflict has fallen from 89% in Q1, it remains by far the leading driver of supply chain anxiety. Meanwhile, concern around the war in Ukraine has increased from 28% to 33%, showing that businesses are still grappling with the combined impact of conflict across critical energy, logistics, food, manufacturing and defence-related supply chains.

This represents a continuation of the shift identified in Q1, when immediate geopolitical threats overtook US protectionism and US-China trade tensions as the top causes of supply chain disruption. The Q2 findings suggest that, even as headline anxiety moderates, the underlying risk picture remains severe.

Cyber-attacks move up the risk agenda

Cyber risk has also become a more prominent concern for supply chain leaders. When asked about the risk they are most concerned about over the next 12 months, respondents ranked:

• Geopolitical risk and political uncertainty: 35%
• Inflation and input price rises: 28%
• Cyber-attacks and uncertainty: 9%

This marks a shift from Q1 2026, when logistics disruption was the third-ranked concern. The change indicates that procurement professionals increasingly see cyber-attacks not only as an IT risk, but as a direct threat to supply continuity.

A new Pulse question on cyber exposure found that concern about cyber-attacks across supply chains has risen to an average of 4.73 on a 1–7 scale, up from 4.32 in Q1 2026. Nearly eight in ten respondents, 79%, scored their concern at 4 out of 7 or above, while 17% said they were very concerned.

“The increase in concern around cyber-attacks is another warning sign," says Glen. "Modern supply chains are digitally connected, so a cyber incident can rapidly become an operational, financial and reputational crisis."

Organisations are actively redesigning their supply networks

In response to disruption, procurement teams are continuing to prioritise resilience strategies over narrow cost efficiency. The top-ranked strategies for ensuring continuity of supply over the next three to six months are:

• Diversifying the number of suppliers: 5.58 out of 6
• Extending contracts: 5.09
• Holding more stock: 4.87

These figures show that organisations are not simply reacting to immediate shortages; they are actively redesigning their supply networks to reduce dependence on single suppliers, single regions and fragile transport corridors.

The findings also suggest that the profession is moving beyond traditional linear supply chains and towards more sophisticated supply webs, where visibility, optionality and resilience across multiple tiers are becoming essential.

Supply chain disruption to push up consumer prices

Businesses are facing a broadening wave of price pressures that is expected to feed through to consumers through the second half of the year.

the impact of disruption is now moving through the system, from higher shipping costs and insurance premiums to supplier contracts, replacement stock and final prices.

The Q2 Pulse Survey identifies the strongest projected input price increases in:

• Petroleum, metal ores, other mining and quarrying products: 41% of the CIPS Pulse panel expect prices to rise by more than 10%
• Shipping and logistics: 35% expect prices to rise by more than 10%
• Chemicals and chemical products: 30% expect prices to rise by more than 10%

The scale of the risk is far wider than in previous Pulse readings. Reflecting on the coming quarter (Q3 2026), at least 10% of all respondents expect input prices to rise by more than 10% in 20 out of 23 categories.

Significant additional pressure is expected in rubber and plastic products, where 29% of respondents expect price rises of more than 10%, computers and peripheral equipment at 29%, coke and petroleum products at 28%, fabricated metal products at 21%, basic metals at 21%, and food products and beverages at 20%.

US tariff uncertainty remains a live issue

Although geopolitical conflict remains the dominant concern, uncertainty around US tariff policy continues to affect global procurement planning.

One third of respondents, 33%, say their organisation is currently affected by the evolving tariff policy of the US Administration. A further 37% say they are not currently impacted but are monitoring the situation. Only 25% say they are not affected, while 5% do not know.

This suggests that tariff uncertainty remains an important background risk, even if conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine are now more immediate operational concerns.

“Taken together, the data points to a global economy still vulnerable to stagflationary pressures: weak confidence, elevated costs and persistent geopolitical risk," says Glen. "The priority for businesses is to build resilience without locking in unnecessary cost. The priority for governments is to reduce uncertainty wherever possible and support the security of critical supply networks."

"Put bluntly the global economy is in danger of suffering from what the Cambridge Economist John Maynard Keynes labelled the ‘paradox of thrift'. Faced with heightened levels of uncertainty and fear, consumers and businesses go to cash, save money and economic activity as a result contracts.”

The CIPS Pulse is a quarterly panel run in conjunction with the Global State of Procurement & Supply, providing regular insight into the pressures being experienced by procurement and supply leaders worldwide. 

Read the latest results and download the 2026 CIPS State of Procurement & Supply report.